Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Crisis Over?? A new bull market??? WRONG

I am continually amazed at the comments you hear after a rally in a bear market. After today's rally, we are sitting right back at the mid-day levels from last Wednesday. Consider that again, we see one of the best percentage gains ever and we are just back up to last weeks levels. That does not make me want to rush out and commit new capital right away. We closed our AVAV short today for a monster gain from last week. We shorted around $32 and covered around $21--not bad for a few trading days. I am just waiting to put some more shorts on---but I will see if the late afternoon euphoria of today continues into tomorrow morning.

I thought cheerleader Larry Kudlow was going to break out the Pom Poms tonight. Kudlow has been calling for a turnaround for a long time and is back to his King Dollar will solve everything mode. They were talking about how this was a broad based rally and how volume increased today. Here is a thought---where is the economic improvement? Are we really ready to rally because Vik Pandit says that Citi had a good quarter. They should have had a good quarter. All the banks are getting money at almost free rates and have very nice margins on the interest they are charging. But if they are afraid to make new loans, the euphoria can't last very long. I don't believe that the market read far too much into Citi's report today and if you look back over the past several months, when the financials rallied---IT DID NOT HOLD!!!

I could believe that a rally would stick if we had some meaningful economic improvement. If our government was reducing debt, or getting rid of the to big to fail idea, etc. To date, we have seen none of that. I would love to see a follow through day tomorrow and we might, but I skeptical at best.

If I can get my hands on some shares of DTO, I will be looking to short them. I think oil is trending back up and DTO is very volatile. It is not for the faint of heart. I tried to initiate a short on it today, and thankfully couldn't immediately locate shares. It subsequently had a nice run and I moved away from the trade.

Folks, don't worry---Barney Frank has got your back. He has figured out that the uptick rule being reinstated will really stabilize things. In all seriousness, I think they will reinstate the uptick rule, but the biggest news we could get would be elimination of the mark-to-market rule. I think if they eliminate it the DOW could jump 600 points or better in one day. Again, it is a shame that I am sitting here trying to worry more about political forces than market forces.

If you like a wild ride for a long play, take a look at Y. The chart looks great and this one could get a nice move if we get a follow through day.

On my short list, I am watching DMND, PNRA, and SXIC.

Doug "Short-em All" Kass is on CNBC tonight calling last weeks lows GENERATIONAL LOWS. I just can't believe that all of the fear has been removed and we are headed back up. They are sitting there trying to price the S&P. How the heck can you value the thing when you haven't the slightest idea what earnings will be in the upcoming quarter.

Gold took a beating today at the hands of all of the "deflationistas". Believe me, we just saw a great buying opportunity in the yellow metal. It may fall again tomorrow and I believe that it is a good long term buy.

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