ITS INFLATION!!!! CASE CLOSED

We have been exploring the inflation vs. deflation debate on our show for several months and while we have heard compelling arguments on both sides---we believe that we are headed for a period of massive inflation. Will most be surprised? Yes. Most of you know that at Stock Shotz, we take a common sense approach to the markets. So as we explored this debate we did a little unsophisticated research to assist with our analysis. We started by heading down to the local grocery store to see if the price of a gallon of milk, which was marked up almost daily as the price of oil increased last summer, had gone down in the same proportion as had a barrel of oil. Answer--NO.
What? No, but what about the argument that we are in a period of deflation? Isn't the demand for milk so sparse that they are dropping the price with each gallon? Not hardly.

This recession/depression has been one of "pockets". While many have lost their jobs, homes and more---there are segments of the population that have not had to make many adjustments in their purchasing habits. Many have argued on our show that all of the money being pumped into the system could not cause inflation because it was simply rebuilding the balance sheets of the banks--which had been decimated. But is that totally the case? I would argue no!!! Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com argued this time last year (as oil prices were rising and many were talking inflation) that we had not seen the true effects of monetary inflation. He contended that we were seeing inflation caused by energy prices and not the first government stimulus or the dovish Federal Reserve Policy. I agree with Williams that the true effects of the increase in money supply have not surfaced yet. Lets look at this recession/depression a little deeper. This period has seen fear strike consumers like none other in my lifetime. Simply put, everybody is scared as they have seen their 401K's cut in half or more. People feel less wealthy. All of this action has the money multiplier at HISTORIC LOWS.

How can tax and spend, borrow and spend be anything but inflationary? What we are seeing now is not the rebuilding of the banks balance sheets, it is only a timing headfake. Inflation is just around the corner. The money that has been pumped into and is being pumped into the economy is STILL THERE. We are not seeing the massive inflationary effects because the money multiplier is so low---it has been below 1 and is now hovering right around the 1 level. These spending programs will cause the multiplier to rise and when it does--look out. Sadly enough--the inevitability of the increase in the money multiplier is not the only risk factor that we have for inflation. Most every economist will agree that Fed Funds rates of zero combined with MASSIVE GOVERNMENT BORROWING cannot result in anything but a weaker dollar over time. Yes, during this downturn, the dollar held its position as the world's reserve currency. It performed surprisingly well, but the ingredients are in the mix for a weaker dollar in the future. What happens when the dollar starts to decline? Oil will rise quickly. Throw in the fact that OPEC has been cutting production for quite sometime and there has been worldwide stimulus designed to get consumers spending again and we have a triple threat on the oil front--the weak dollar, production cuts, and demand that will most certainly increase.

Yes a GM bankruptcy will most likely press the pause button on the money multiplier increase, but it will not get anywhere near the stop button. When the fire of inflation is lit, it will be virtually impossible to extinguish. Does anyone believe that it will be politically popular to push for contractionary policy anytime soon on the heels of the worst recession that most of us have ever seen? No way, and if we don't get on top of inflation it will spiral out of control.

Is Energy The Place To Be?

I think so. I am looking at several charts that tell me energy could have another move up. I think NOV could get a nice bounce. I plan to buy it today with a tight stop below 29.40. Many are saying that you can't buy oil under $50--as that is a huge psychological barrier. I disagree, I think we are headed for inflation and many are going to be shocked at the pace of the ascent of oil prices.

We still have a lot of headline risk in these markets. No doubt the markets do not like to hear about more government control. In my opinion, General Motors is most certainly headed for bankruptcy--and that will ultimately be good in the eyes of the market. The more the agony is prolonged---the more headline risk we incur in this market.

I heard from the deflation camp yesterday as oil and gold prices came under pressure. You deflation believers just keep pumping your money into shorts on the oil prices and it will ultimately lower my entry point and make my longs even more profitable. I was in Dallas this weekend and there were restaurants where I had to wait quite some time for a table. Now I admit that the economy has been slow, but it has far from stopped. My point is that when we do get rolling again, you will see rapid growth in the money multiplier. The multiplier will cause rampant inflation. I like the oil trade even better than gold as a hedge against inflation.

One of my favorites FCX got hammered yesterday after a nice run. I think it provided a great entry point near the 20ma. I will look to buy it today with a tight stop. With the Bears coming back out of the woodwork, I am amazed that I am finding more longs than shorts with my chart scans. I am still surprisingly bullish. Cautiously bullish with tight stops would be a better description. I think we have so much headline risk and you must protect yourself.

DA BEARS ARE BACK!!!!

I had thought that we would see the last two days of the month be positive as it is the end of the quarter and most of the mutual funds would have liked to see higher prices to help their results look better. The futures are literally getting hammered at this point. We have had what now amounts to nothing more than a very nice bear market rally.

So how do we play this market. I have a list of things that I would like to purchase as we pullback. Oil and oil service plays are certainly on that list. You will see oil and natural gas pull back and create some awesome values in companies such as MMR and XTO. Everyone knew the financial sector was overbought and as it pulls back, it should make top notch companies such as NTRS much cheaper.

We will hear the deflation camp come roaring back over the next week. We will hear all of the same erroneous arguments and gold will be a great buy. I couldn't make a post without mentioning that GM's Rick Waggoner is set to step down at the request of the government.

Our interview with Jerry Bowyer has been rescheduled due to illness in his family.

Gary B. "The Chartman" Smith Interview March 26, 2009

Hear the full interview with THE CHARTMAN at www.stockshotz.tv

Kevin Kerr Interview March 26, 2009

FOR THE FULL VERSION PLEASE VISIT WWW.STOCKSHOTZ.TV Hear Kevin talk oil, gold, agriculture, and much more.

March 26, 2009

Over the past few months, anytime that I argued inflation--I got emails telling me everything from I was misguided to downright stupid. My last few inflation posts have drawn very few emails, none of which were negative. So is that the Stock Shotz indicator that inflation is near or here? I argue that it is. We are seeing dollar weakness and commodities strength. Many of you have argued that it was those awful speculators that drove oil up over $140 last year. Do you really believe that all speculators were crushed on the down move---never to play the markets again? I certainly do not. The speculators will move right back in if oil demand picks up and especially if the dollar weakens further. Get ready for the next commodities boom. I will have my interview with Kevin Kerr posted tonight. He is bullish on agriculture and offers a great insight.

We also have an interview with Gary B "The Chartman" Smith this afternoon. Gary is an awesome technician and will share what he sees in this market. The futures are getting stronger as we speak and many that are on the sidelines are going to be itching to rush back into these markets. Will they fall into a bear trap? We will ask the CHARTMAN tonight. There is still time to submit your questions for Gary. Email your questions to webmaster@stockshotz.tv

STOCK SHOTZ INTERVIEW: DTI Founder and CEO Mr. Tom Busby

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Carley Garner Interview March 22, 2009

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RE or IN But Definitely Not DE FLATION

We have been arguing for quite some time that we would see massive inflation and it seems now that a lot of money is being put into inflation trades. The Fed monetizing the debt caused the dollar to get weaker (no surprise to anyone). If you still have a deflation argument--please put it in the comment section. I can't see any argument for deflation left--whether or not you are arguing that we were having to rebuild the balance sheets, or the falling commodities, you can forget it---it is inflation.

Dennis Gartman is on Bloomberg this morning using the new buzz phrase in the Mainstream Media---GENERATIONAL LOWS. How did we go from the "bottoming process" to generational lows? I hope we are at generational lows, but I am not betting on it. Gartman is making the case for gold. Gold should break $1000 by the end of next week and continue north from there. No matter how you slice it, all of this quantitative easing and "throw in everything but the kitchen sink" Fed policy is going to cause inflation. Now you might argue--as Diane Swonk did, that the Fed will be able to contract its balance sheet faster than any other time in history---but you can't argue that we aren't headed for inflation. YOU JUST CAN'T.

I was very pleased with my picks yesterday. We are still bullish on FCX and are looking to add CVX as we believe that the oil play is back in a huge way. I know all of the counter arguments--stockpiles are still high and prices are moving into an area where OPEC may not follow through with their production cuts. No doubt we will start hearing about demand destruction, but if we see the dollar weaken it will take much much longer for demand destruction to have an impact on prices here at home.

See our great interview with John Bradshaw Layfield at www.stockshotz.tv Also please go to our website and click on the banner for our sponsor DTI. You can sign up for their free trading education and by using that banner they know you were referred by Stock Shotz. PLEASE SUPPORT US BY VISITING THEIR SITE THROUGH THAT LINK.

FED INJECTS A TRILLION

How do you read what happened today? The Fed injects a TRILLION and the markets love it. If they threw in a trillion for good measure, that is one thing---but I think that this means we are really in trouble economically. AND DIDN'T WE JUST MONETIZE THE GOVERNMENT DEBT? Did you see the reversal to the upside in gold when the announcement was made? If you don't have some gold---you are going to get left behind if we really see inflation heat up. I like silver as well.

Perhaps my favorite inflation play of all is oil. As the dollar starts to weaken we will get back into the spiral that we were in last summer with oil going up. I believe that we will see oil prices well over $100 per barrel in the next three months. It seems like the street woke up today and decided that the inflation trade was real. I don't see how we can not have inflation with the massive numbers that we are seeing thrown at this economy.

I think one of my old favorites Freeport FCX--though it has had a great run, has a lot more of upside potential in an inflationary environment. This is a well run company and these guys did a good job of reacting early in the recession. I think this one could be a 4-bagger.

There are also some good silver miners SLW looks like a good play. We will have John Bradshaw Layfield on the show tomorrow.

Please visit his site at www.layfieldenergy.com

Volume Waning

Today's trade looked impressive and while we closed on the highs of the day, the volume keeps me from getting very excited. I must admit that sentiment seems to be shifting faster than I had expected. We are hearing more buy and hold comments such as "things are unsure in the short term, but in 3-5 years we will be higher". I don't know that I buy that at this point.

I really like USO at this point. Now those of you that have followed me for some time can criticize me as UNG was one of my worst picks of the year. I just think that crude has the potential for huge upside from here---but I will not get married to it if it moves against me.

I made a nice short on EMS a couple of weeks ago and think it is a good point to short it again. I will run a tight stop with this one, but I look for it to break $30 again.

If you like boring, T is a good buy here. Nice dividend and the chart looks good to me.

Finally, I really like CMP. I think this one could grab 15% in a hurry. I think we are going to see money flow back into the agricultural sector.

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SOMETIMES YOU LOSE WHEN YOU TRY TO GET A BARGAIN

Actually, the title of this post has nothing to do with stocks. We have been on the air for a year and have used a free recording service. This morning I had one of the best interviews yet with Mesirow Financial Chief Economist Diane Swonk and while the audio file downloaded---it had no sound waves. So instead of hearing the interview, for now we will have to rely on my notes. I have complained and hope the issue can be fixed. I must say that in addition to being one of the best economists in the world, Diane Swonk is genuinely a very nice person who cares about people.

I have been very worried about inflation and Diane actually made me change my thought process. She argues that while the Fed has increased its balance sheet tremendously--it has done so in a fashion that can be reversed quickly and without a lot of fanfare (or political grandstanding). She contends that they can not renew some of the loans that they have creatively made while holding risky assets as collateral. As the economy improves, they can make fast contractions of the money supply through this method. She contends that the Federal Reserve can and will be successful fighting inflation in this manner.

Diane was definitely not a gold bug and seems to believe that the Chinese have no chance to walk away from our debt. I agree and to some degree it seems that the Chinese have been trying to grandstand by asking for assurances about the safety of our debt.

Diane acknowledges that fluctuations in the U.S. Dollar are extremely difficult to accurately predict in terms of direction, but does not see the value of the dollar being totally destroyed.

I must admit that after my conversation with Ms. Swonk, I felt much more encouraged about the overall state of our economy---not that she by any means painted a rosy short-term picture---but she did make me believe that we are going to see improvements and will return to a normalized state in the years to come.

We have part the audio file and hope to recover the rest soon.

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BERNANKE INTERVIEW

Ben Bernanke went on 60 Minutes tonight and said that the recession should end later this year--but the banking system is not out of the woods. He denies the possibility of depression. I must admit that I am disturbed that he would even do a prime time interview. Can you say CHEERLEADING? If things were OK, I don't think he would have been doing this interview.

I think this week we could see another upswing, but I still think we are headed back down. I don't see the true confidence in the banking system coming back soon. Now I have seen several comments on twitter tonight from people saying they were buying financials tomorrow.

I see that the futures are holding their own tonight. Many are saying that we may head to 8000 on the DOW. If we do, I will be looking to short. If the market comes out strong tomorrow, I sure won't fight it.

BE SURE TO SEE OUR INTERVIEW WITH DIANE SWONK TOMORROW.

More Upside?

It looks like these markets are determined to push higher. What are the markets really telling us? Are they telling us that they are still a leading indicator and we are poised for economic recovery during the last half of this year? Are they telling us that they were just so oversold that they became truly a great value? Are they telling us that they now have confidence in the TALF and the stimulus bill?

While all of the above are definitely possible, I think we are seeing the markets prepare us for inflation. This call is undoubtedly a little early as we are still seeing layoffs around the country, but I think we could be in for a period of stagflation. I go back to one of our interviews with Jim Rogers---I was frustrated that my short of the SPY was not working. He explained that in times of inflation, stocks may rise, but if the dollar is falling you are really losing wealth. I think we may have seen the inflection point for the dollar this week. Look at the price of oil, it seems to be telling us that it has found a bottom. The markets have a very short term memory and seem to have forgotten all of the misery that oil dealt us this time last year. If oil has bottomed, I would argue that the dollar has topped and gold has much more room on the upside. I have been arguing that when the dollar does begin to fall we are going to see a spiral that will surprise many traders. The dollar down oil up spiral that we saw last year will be back and I believe that it will be worse than ever.

Credit market improvements could be the silver lining---but they will contribute to inflation as well. I argued several months ago that when the money multiplier started to increase, inflation would really take hold as the money supply had already grown to alarming levels. Now we are seeing more banks attempt to return their TARP money to the government. Does that weaken Mish Shedlock's argument that we are not in danger of inflation in the near term because most of the increased money supply will be used simply to rebuild the balance sheets of the banks? I think it could.

It will be interesting to see how the market acts the final hour of trading today. Will traders book profits and be reluctant to go into the weekend long---or is there enough "real" confidence that we will get stronger into the weekend in anticipation of that much talked about "capital on the sidelines" flowing into the market in the near term.

Stay tuned!!!

See Our March 11 Interview with Dr. Dani Babb

Please visit our website at www.stockshotz.tv and view our great interview with Dr. Dani Babb.

We will have a blog update on the new found "bullish" attitude of the market later tonight.

Crisis Over?? A new bull market??? WRONG

I am continually amazed at the comments you hear after a rally in a bear market. After today's rally, we are sitting right back at the mid-day levels from last Wednesday. Consider that again, we see one of the best percentage gains ever and we are just back up to last weeks levels. That does not make me want to rush out and commit new capital right away. We closed our AVAV short today for a monster gain from last week. We shorted around $32 and covered around $21--not bad for a few trading days. I am just waiting to put some more shorts on---but I will see if the late afternoon euphoria of today continues into tomorrow morning.

I thought cheerleader Larry Kudlow was going to break out the Pom Poms tonight. Kudlow has been calling for a turnaround for a long time and is back to his King Dollar will solve everything mode. They were talking about how this was a broad based rally and how volume increased today. Here is a thought---where is the economic improvement? Are we really ready to rally because Vik Pandit says that Citi had a good quarter. They should have had a good quarter. All the banks are getting money at almost free rates and have very nice margins on the interest they are charging. But if they are afraid to make new loans, the euphoria can't last very long. I don't believe that the market read far too much into Citi's report today and if you look back over the past several months, when the financials rallied---IT DID NOT HOLD!!!

I could believe that a rally would stick if we had some meaningful economic improvement. If our government was reducing debt, or getting rid of the to big to fail idea, etc. To date, we have seen none of that. I would love to see a follow through day tomorrow and we might, but I skeptical at best.

If I can get my hands on some shares of DTO, I will be looking to short them. I think oil is trending back up and DTO is very volatile. It is not for the faint of heart. I tried to initiate a short on it today, and thankfully couldn't immediately locate shares. It subsequently had a nice run and I moved away from the trade.

Folks, don't worry---Barney Frank has got your back. He has figured out that the uptick rule being reinstated will really stabilize things. In all seriousness, I think they will reinstate the uptick rule, but the biggest news we could get would be elimination of the mark-to-market rule. I think if they eliminate it the DOW could jump 600 points or better in one day. Again, it is a shame that I am sitting here trying to worry more about political forces than market forces.

If you like a wild ride for a long play, take a look at Y. The chart looks great and this one could get a nice move if we get a follow through day.

On my short list, I am watching DMND, PNRA, and SXIC.

Doug "Short-em All" Kass is on CNBC tonight calling last weeks lows GENERATIONAL LOWS. I just can't believe that all of the fear has been removed and we are headed back up. They are sitting there trying to price the S&P. How the heck can you value the thing when you haven't the slightest idea what earnings will be in the upcoming quarter.

Gold took a beating today at the hands of all of the "deflationistas". Believe me, we just saw a great buying opportunity in the yellow metal. It may fall again tomorrow and I believe that it is a good long term buy.

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Rally Coming? Inflation Is

I am amazed at how many bloggers have been predicting a rally every day. I must admit that I have been amazed that we haven't had a decent bounce, but many look like they are hoping that if they call it every day it will eventually happen. That said, I think we are going to see a rally this week. Several of the doom sayers are opining that we are going to make it through this crisis. To now we have basically heard that things are over and we will never be the same---so a well it will take us 10 years to work our way out of it prediction is a good one---at least we have some hope.

It looks like I am going to miss my gold $1250 by the end of March call, but I still am sure that commodities prices are going up. Copper seems to be making a good base and oil is quietly doing the same thing. Don't forget that a simple consolidation could become a huge breakout if the dollar begins to fall. Are we going to be tested on the international stage? You bet we are and tensions between the U.S. and China will hurt the dollar if only psychologically. The dollar does not need much encouragement to start a downward spiral. Many are going to be surprised by the pace of the decline once the dollar begins its fall. When that happens, and we see reduced inventories of oil as a result of the OPEC production cuts we are going to be in trouble. We have taken domestic oil and gas production off line and while this may be a simple analysis---you can take it off line faster than you can put it back on. During the oil crisis last summer, I remember wondering how demand was holding up in the face of rising prices---and was it ever. We will be back in that place again soon---and it is scary.

I have to brag about my short call from late last week. AVAV was down over a dollar during the regular session today and after some disappointing numbers, the stock was down about $7 during after hours trade.

Seriously, I am expecting a rally tomorrow---barring some kind of dumb announcement. Even though I don't think you can assign a fair multiple to the S&P because of the cloudy earnings, I believe that many are convinced it is cheap. The overseas markets are doing well at this moment and the futures are looking strong.

I am looking at LFT for a trade. I like the stock from a technical perspective and think it will move into the $19.70 range soon. I am looking for the S&P to close over 700 by the end of this week and this stock will benefit if it does.

STOCK SHOTZ INTERVIEWS MATT MCCALL OF PENN FINANCIAL GROUP

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CITIGROUP A PENNY STOCK

Today was not a surprise to me except I was surprised to see us not go lower during the last 30 minutes of trading. Many are saying there is no hope. These markets are definitely in trouble and I am beginning to believe if we have the lost decade--we might be getting out quickly. So is there any hope anywhere? I think there is.

I spent the majority of the evening pouring over charts of energy stocks and I like the sector from a technical standpoint. Many of these stocks appear to be bottoming and many were pricing in the kind of energy declines that we saw in the eighties. This time is different and it will not be as protracted downturn for oil as it was back then. Don't forget that China is still growing (albeit at a much lesser rate than we had grown accustomed to the last few years). Many are trying to deny that all of this money that the government has printed will cause inflation. We hear excuses of all sorts as to why we will not see inflation. We are so scared of deflation and that has become the focus (many are claiming that the government printing presses are only replacing the wealth lost from the balance sheets of the financial institutions). THE GREATER THREAT IS STAGFLATION. As the Chinese economy begins to heat up again, we are going to see commodities prices begin to rise steadily. The dollar is just waiting for a reason to decline and the commodities rise will could well be the catalyst that it is waiting for. We saw how truly vicious a cycle of weak dollar higher oil can get just this past summer. I think this summer could make last summer look like a walk in the park when you factor in the inflation and the unemployment rate.

Tomorrows jobs number has terrible expectations built in to it. I don't know how bad the number would have to be to "shock" the market. Back in the good ole days, if the number wasn't a bad surprise to traders---we could expect to move higher. With the mindset of traders, an non-eventful jobs report could still spell doom for the markets because we need a catalyst to buy. Gone are the days where "not bad" equals "good".

I think we could see some short covering tomorrow as traders on the short side should have plenty of profits to book after this week. I wouldn't be surprised at a move higher---nor would I be impressed. I am buying XTO right here with a tight stop. I like the chart on XTO and my fundamental beliefs about the oil/nat gas space just confirm my thoughts that XTO is a good trade here.

The banks are done. Socialism has made its way to our financial institutions. I am looking now for DOW 5750. Any bounce should just give us a good entry point for the next leg down.

CAN'T HOLD GAINS

We had people like Doug Kass declaring the bottom a couple of nights ago, yet we can't hold any gain. I knew we were in trouble when we saw a lot of the gains evaporate late in the day yesterday. Now this morning many are out there acting like a GM bankruptcy would be some sort of shocker. Go figure.

Yesterday I highlighted an EMS short and I am still happy with that play. I am also looking to short AVAV. I will detail this one more later--but I think this one is headed down in a hurry.

Believe it or not, I am more concerned about inflation than all other factors combined. I have been saying that China has the ability to get their economy rolling faster than any other country and we heard positive news out of them yesterday. If they get commodities going again, we could be looking at the worst stagflation we have ever seen.

Matt McCall will be on the show tomorrow1!!!!!

IS THERE ANY PLACE SAFE

Many have been hyping healthcare as the safe haven in these times of trouble. While everyone is selling off stocks like there is no tomorrow because they can't determine the E in the P/E ratio---we have analyst suggesting that we put money into a sector where the revenues are suspect at best. I have chosen to short EMS and the trade is working nicely so far. I started looking at the fundamentals of the company and just couldn't see why analyst were so impressed. I think the company is well run, they just have the uncertainty of ever-changing government reimbursement and the ever-high potential of litigation. Technically, I like this as a short as well. My first target is $26.48 where I plan to cover half with a trailing stop for the rest with an ultimate goal of 22.15.

This market wants to rally, but everytime we show even a little strength we see people rush to the exits. I see no fundamental or technical reason for these markets to rise right here. I saw a graphic showing how much wealth has literally evaporated over the last year. It is absolutely MIND BOGGLING. I do not buy healthcare as a safe haven. As a matter of fact, I look for healthcare to underperform as we hear more "healthcare reform" rhetoric. I think this sector could be more jittery over the next two months than the overall market--and that is saying something.

There is one thing that is on my mind right here. So many are bearish, we could get a very surprising rally---not because of fundamentals---nor technicals---just because no one upon no one really expects it. If that happens, I will plan to short more. As a fundamental guy, I use to hate the term "listen to the markets". Now is a time to listen to the markets and be very careful.

Its Not Inflation, Its Not Deflation, Its EMOTION

This market is all about emotion. I have looked at chart after chart that do not even show the 200 day moving average on the scale that I am looking at---that is how far these things have dropped. There is and will be no sense in these markets until we can rally and hold it. The futures are up right now--about an hour prior to the opening. If we don't hold the rally today then we will go down sharply again. Could we touch 3500 on the dow this year. Yes we could!

I will have more later today. I am literally sitting on the sidelines waiting. I have said over and over that the worst think you can see in the markets is a slow decline throughout the day. That is what we saw yesterday.

Interesting in Working With The Stock Shotz Team?

If you are interested in making some extra money (legally and ethically) during these uncertain times, call my associate Clint at 318 548 6548. He will be happy to answer any questions and help you determine if this opportunity is suitable for you.

WE HAVE SEVERAL GREAT INTERVIEWS COMING SOON. FEEL FREE TO SEND IN YOUR SUGGESTIONS AS TO GUESTS YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEE ON THE SHOW.

ATTENTION ALL TRADERS AND INVESTORS

THERE IS A TERRIBLE TAX BEING PROPOSED IN THE FORM OF H.R. 1068 SEE TEXT AT http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1068
THIS WOULD HURT MANY OF US THAT TRADE SHORT TERM.

PCE CORE PRICE INDEX RISES WAS HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. INFLATION HERE WE COME!!!!!!

Carley Garner Interview March 1, 2009

PLEASE VISIT CARLEY AT www.decarleytrading.com
or www.carleygarner