Monday, October 13, 2008

What A Day!!!!

Today was a great one, but I want to see us hold these gains tomorrow. I think we will hold them for the most part, but I don't want to go full force into the market until I can see we are going to hold some gains here. I will tell you that I cannot understand the action in natural gas. UNG was up very little today and I must admit that perplexes me more than just a little. I am sticking with that trade for the time being.

For those of you that have just jumped on the gold bandwagon, I think you are going to be disappointed. I know that I have had some guests on the show that say gold is headed much higher, but I just don't see it right now. It may go a little higher, but it isn't going to hit $1500 anytime soon. The one thing that a lot of people missed is the fact that the dollar would stay fairly strong through the downturn.

I think we are seeing confidence restored and when we do people are going to start seeing the good values out there. The American system is not broken, but it is having to endure a deeper recession for the band aids of the Greenspan era. He should never be allowed to speak in public again. Greenspan created more bubbles than anyone in history and now we have all paid a price for them.

For those comparing this recession to the Great Depression---unemployment during the Great Depression was more than 20%. Right now it is around 6%. We could easily get this economy growing again during the middle of next year and remember the stocks will turn up before the economy does. I am not a raging bull, but I am cautiously optimistic-----and I need to see at least a follow through day tomorrow.

STAY TUNED.

1 comments:

Christian said...

<<"The American system is not broken, but it is having to endure a deeper recession for the band aids of the Greenspan era. He should never be allowed to speak in public again. Greenspan created more bubbles than anyone in history and now we have all paid a price for them">>

Bernanke was a regional fed governer during this time and helped create these bubbles as he voted and pushed for all the rate cuts down to 1%. So the same idiot who helped fuel this then is even more in control now.

I agree that Gold could easily plunge $200/oz. in the short term. However, if it does you better be buying with both hands. Our wonderful gov't is going to run $2 trillion trade defecits in the very near future and they already have saddled us with a $10 trillion federal deficit. They are printing hundreds of billions daily (as well as all other central banks), and if you don't think that will lead to very high gold prices at some point, you're mistaken.

I'm not a market timer or short term trader. I have NO idea where the markets are going tomorrow, next week, or the week after. But I can promise you that gold will be several thousand per oz. within the next few years.