Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Any Good Signs???

There are good things happening. Look at commodity prices---we are seeing no sign of inflation at this point. Now I know that many of you will contend that it is right over the horizon, but the falling oil prices are going to help the economy. This is the equivalent of a tax cut over the prices of the last quarter (which most working Americans had no choice but to immediately adjust to). Gold is not spiking which tells me that the panic is not as bad as it was the last day we were down over 500 points. Now I am not calling today a good day, but I see better signs than I did a couple of weeks ago.

I am now watching Federal Express FDX. This is a well run company that got slammed today because of worry about the global slowdown. Did the traders run for the door on this one when they got there margin calls? Were the sellers accurately forecasting the help this company will get from falling fuel prices? I think this one got overdone to the downside today. It may have further to fall if we see more forced liquidation, but over the long haul I think this one heads higher.

I like hearing the mainstream media talking about a LONG DEEP RECESSION AND EVEN DEPRESSION. The more they hammer this point home, the more it gets factored in on the downside and gives us opportunity to profit. Yes this will be a longer deeper slowdown, but it is not a shutdown. We have factored a lot of the recession in already. I am making my list, but am not anywhere near ready to plunge in full force yet. Sit back and watch---the only guarantee is VOLATILITY.