Thursday, October 16, 2008

Panic Slowing?

If you ask me panic is beginning to slow down. We all know that stocks will turn before the economy does. I believe that we are seeing the beginnings of the effects of the interventions. The gold premium is going down. People are going to realize that even a global recession is not the end of the world. Am I calling a bottom? No, but it feels like we are getting close. The thing that I think we must accept is that we are in a very different trading environment. Bigger intraday swings are going to be a part of life for quite some time. With every environmental change comes opportunity. I have seen some crazy swing in normally boring old stocks.

I must say that I am expecting a bounce in commodities. I am still holding UNG and was pleased with the action there today. I believe that it was slammed as we delevered. I think as winter approaches and we see that people are in fact going to turn the heat on in their homes---even during a recession---gas should bounce back.

I am making my shopping list of securities. XTO has to come to the top of the list if you believe in the natural gas and energy play and I do. I mentioned Federal Express FDX last night. I also like Stericycle SRCL and Airgas ARG. Again, this is my watch list right now. I have not bought any of these yet.

I am so amazed as the talking heads on televisions are telling people things such as "Growth will be slower in the U.S. for a couple of years" Yes, but growth is good. When you are coming out of a recession, slow growth is better than no growth or contraction. We need to have this recession. It is good. As Jim Rogers said "We need to start over from a sound base."

Another stock I have watched (and I am glad I didn't pull the trigger) is Jones Lang Lasalle JLL. I have been shocked that this stock has been hit so hard. I think they are a very well run company and should be worth more.