Tuesday, October 7, 2008


To all the idiots that said we were going to avoid a recession---you were dead wrong. To everyone that said you cannot mitigate inflation with demand destruction--you were dead wrong. Now where do we go from here? What is priced into this market? How much of a slowdown is already in? If you can answer those questions you can be a millionaire very soon. Here is the problem---this looks to be a long term problem. We are more likely to see a U shaped recovery than a V shaped recovery. I think it may take many years for the averages to recover, but lets get out there and find out which individual stocks will recover at a faster pace.

I think FCX is looking good on a valuation basis, but I wouldn't buy it with my enemies money right now. I am making my shopping list though. I can't figure out FLR for anything. The dang stock goes down every day and the volume keeps getting higher. If this one continues to fall there is no such thing as value on the street. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO KEEP FALLING.

Today looked awful especially given the fact that oil and gold were up and the dollar was down. Those are not ingredients for a recovery. It is a sad day when "LOSE LESS" is the best advice I have heard lately. I will update later.


Christian said...

What can I say? You have guys like Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers on and you say you agree with them, so you should be buying the metals. That is the ONLY strategy you need right now.

Gold under 900 and silver under 12 is a gift right here right now. ANY dip in AU or AG is a gift from the heavens and a must buy. AG at $11.70 is criminal. The gov't is manipulating the price of AU and AG but it won't last forever. See you at $2,500.

Got gold?

Stock Shotz said...

It is hard to argue against the metals today. This rate cut is going to fuel inflation talks again.

I will say the one point where everyone has been wrong is that demand destruction can't mitigate inflation and I was thrown off by that fact.

christian said...

true, demand destruction can lower commodoties prices for a time, but we are a global population of 7 billion and exponentially growing. Unless we get "the plague" worldwide in 2009, what do you think commodoties will be worth when the population hits 10 billion?

Anyway, all this is only money and if you want to see how it's all gonna end I can point you to a passage from the last chapter of the best selling book of all time.

Revelation 6:6 "Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!"