I am beginning to like what I am seeing with the trading of these markets. The futures are up nicely and I think there are still some real values out there.
Lets take one that I have been wrong on for quite some time. ICOC has been cut to below $4. This is a great little stock that has traded well over 10. They started getting hammered when oil prices headed up over $100. They have not seen any rebound as a result of the drop in oil prices and I believe that they will start to show improving earnings.
Northern Trust NTRS traded nicely today and then just fell right at the last minute. I believe this one will be trading over $75 within 18 months. They are strong and if they go much lower---any number of companies should be looking at them as a takeover candidate.
I said that I wanted to see an extension of the Tuesday rally and we just couldn't hold it. I think we may be poised to add to it tomorrow. We are seeing most central banks around the world join the rate lowering party and I beleive that this will get the global economy firing on all cylinders in the very near term. The one thing I do know is that the stock market will rebound sharply before we see improvement in the economic indicators. I don't want to miss the move and am considering allocating some of my cash to equities if we see a rally tomorrow.
I have mentioned Stericycle SRCL before and think this thing is headed to $80. In short, I believe they are a very well run company that has a history of making the right acquisitions and doing a good job of integration. There is going to be plenty of Medical Waste in the coming years and I don't see any relaxation of the regulations governing the handling of that waste. SRCL benefits from handling that waste---enough said.
Tomorrow is key. We need to open strong and finish strong. If we don't---I will have a different attitude tomorrow night!
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Direction Change or Relief Rally?
I hope that today is the start of a changing of direction---but I am not convinced. You can't make money on hope. I will say that I have not posted because I traveled to Dallas Texas this weekend. Let me tell you that the good folks in Dallas are still out spending money. There might be a slowdown---but there were a lot of people moving around in gasoline burning automobiles and there were long lines at the restaurants. As I have said over and over--this is a recession, but it is not the end of the world as we know it. I think we may retest the lows again, but I believe that we are in the bottoming process.
So who stands to benefit from the current situation? I have to add VLO to the top of my list. Even after an impressive jump today, it still trades at below 17. I can't see them getting hit much harder than they have already been hit---oh and with the price of oil going down most days---the crack spreads are going to increase which will help their margins. Yes, I know the argument is that demand is down, but I will take increasing margins in an improving marketplace any day.
I have mentioned FCX and I really like this one as a buy-and-forget-about-it. It may go down in the short run, but this one is well run and will deliver over time. It appears to have priced in virtual global collapse. I don't think it will stay this low for very long.
I hope we see some follow through tomorrow. Follow through has been tough to find lately and we so desperately need it. I think we get a rally after the election regardless of the winner.
The dollar is strong and that should help with consumer goods prices.
I am doing research fast and furious and will update as I find good ideas!
So who stands to benefit from the current situation? I have to add VLO to the top of my list. Even after an impressive jump today, it still trades at below 17. I can't see them getting hit much harder than they have already been hit---oh and with the price of oil going down most days---the crack spreads are going to increase which will help their margins. Yes, I know the argument is that demand is down, but I will take increasing margins in an improving marketplace any day.
I have mentioned FCX and I really like this one as a buy-and-forget-about-it. It may go down in the short run, but this one is well run and will deliver over time. It appears to have priced in virtual global collapse. I don't think it will stay this low for very long.
I hope we see some follow through tomorrow. Follow through has been tough to find lately and we so desperately need it. I think we get a rally after the election regardless of the winner.
The dollar is strong and that should help with consumer goods prices.
I am doing research fast and furious and will update as I find good ideas!
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Where Are The Critics of Speculation Now??
When oil was over $120 there were so many that were out blaming the speculators. Now that we are seeing massive moves to the downside no one cares. Speculation works both ways and there are many short oil and the mainstream media chooses to focus on something else. Fear sells best and titles like ECONOMIC CRISIS draw more viewers.
Everyone thought we were headed down 1000 pts on the Dow yesterday. I must admit that it looked bleak in the premarket. I wanted us to test 7900 and bounce hard. Now we are hearing those that say we haven't truly had capitulation yet and we are headed to the downside for a lot more pain. Earnings are getting hit, but at some point the market will lead us out of this mess. Stocks will turn up before the economy does that is for sure. I think we will start to make improvements in stabilization on Nov 5th regardless of who wins the election. We will have a much clearer picture of what will be facing us once a winner is declared.
People seem to be missing the fact that fuel prices are below where they were a year ago and corporate balance sheets for the most part are healthy. As investors we tend to think everyone had as bad management as did some of the failed companies. The reality is that many companies have been executing very well during these hard times and have actually improved their balance sheets. I like Sanofi---but in full disclosure I liked it at $47 when I bought it. I do think they have a great pipeline and will deliver results in any economy.
I will discuss many opportunities later---but right now have to go to my cousins wedding.
More later
Everyone thought we were headed down 1000 pts on the Dow yesterday. I must admit that it looked bleak in the premarket. I wanted us to test 7900 and bounce hard. Now we are hearing those that say we haven't truly had capitulation yet and we are headed to the downside for a lot more pain. Earnings are getting hit, but at some point the market will lead us out of this mess. Stocks will turn up before the economy does that is for sure. I think we will start to make improvements in stabilization on Nov 5th regardless of who wins the election. We will have a much clearer picture of what will be facing us once a winner is declared.
People seem to be missing the fact that fuel prices are below where they were a year ago and corporate balance sheets for the most part are healthy. As investors we tend to think everyone had as bad management as did some of the failed companies. The reality is that many companies have been executing very well during these hard times and have actually improved their balance sheets. I like Sanofi---but in full disclosure I liked it at $47 when I bought it. I do think they have a great pipeline and will deliver results in any economy.
I will discuss many opportunities later---but right now have to go to my cousins wedding.
More later
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Lows Lows and More Lows
Are we headed for a depression? I was hanging my hat on earnings and many have been dismal. I actually liked most of what I heard from Seagate STX, yet the stock dropped like a rock after the report. I cannot believe that oil has fallen to these levels. For those of you that have been following the site for a while, you know I talked about being amazed that the market was going up when oil was steadily climbing over $100. I am just as perplexed at the moves on the downside with oil. So the question is---if the positive move in stocks in the face of rising oil was a sign that oil was overdone to the upside---are falling stocks a sign that oil is going to recover? This is kinda the which came first the chicken or the egg question. Commodities are getting slammed and everyone is claiming that it is due to the global slowdown. The credit markets are SLOWLY healing. When do the falling commodities prices jump start the economy? Are all of the consumers bankrupt? Is everyone upside down in their house? I am trying to play the moderation card here, but you simply can't fight the market on days like today. I can't wait for FLR to report their earnings. I just don't see them being that bad.
I think we are headed to 7900 again on the Dow and if we break below 7800 we are in a world of hurt. We could see 6500 if we break below 7800. I don't think we will, but stranger things have happened over the past couple of months. I personally saw some good things in the STX report and the T report. I thought it was silly that the street punished T for their earnings. If you read the fine print--it seemed that their larger than expected expenses came from the i-phone. To me that ultimately means that they are building a large---potentially loyal base of new customers---hardly something to punish a company over. But these days it fashionable to sell first and ask questions later.
Many of you have emailed and asked--or laughed at how hard the Chinese market is getting hit. I agree that they have been hit hard, but the question is have they done a better job of letting the free markets work than we have? Has the more socialist of the countries acted with more respect to free markets than the leaders of the free world? If they have, then they are poised to recover faster one would have to think.
So where do you go with your money now? Gold? Stocks? The Mattress?
I am selectively looking at stocks just as I have said in my last few posts. I will watch the overall market and have my list ready. I will add about 25% more exposure to equities if we test 7900 and bounce. If we break 7800----I am going all cash.
I think we are headed to 7900 again on the Dow and if we break below 7800 we are in a world of hurt. We could see 6500 if we break below 7800. I don't think we will, but stranger things have happened over the past couple of months. I personally saw some good things in the STX report and the T report. I thought it was silly that the street punished T for their earnings. If you read the fine print--it seemed that their larger than expected expenses came from the i-phone. To me that ultimately means that they are building a large---potentially loyal base of new customers---hardly something to punish a company over. But these days it fashionable to sell first and ask questions later.
Many of you have emailed and asked--or laughed at how hard the Chinese market is getting hit. I agree that they have been hit hard, but the question is have they done a better job of letting the free markets work than we have? Has the more socialist of the countries acted with more respect to free markets than the leaders of the free world? If they have, then they are poised to recover faster one would have to think.
So where do you go with your money now? Gold? Stocks? The Mattress?
I am selectively looking at stocks just as I have said in my last few posts. I will watch the overall market and have my list ready. I will add about 25% more exposure to equities if we test 7900 and bounce. If we break 7800----I am going all cash.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Settling Down??
LIBOR is going down this morning and we are seeing some decent earnings. I have my list ready and will buy today if we get a pullback. I hope we get pullback today and start to settle down to some more reasonable daily trading ranges. I had a family emergency last night as my grandmother fell, so my post is short today. Hopefully I will have a regular post tonight.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Earnings???
I have been making a larger wish list over the weekend as I am becoming more convinced that all of the interventions are going to unclog the credit markets. When credit improves, confidence will improve and we will get back to fundamentals such as EARNINGS. Now I don't doubt that we are going to see weaker revenue numbers because we are in a recession, but don't forget that we may see better than expected margins because of the falling commodities prices. The commodities fall has taken a back seat in the mainstream media to the ECONOMIC CRISIS. I know why---that story doesn't sell as much fear and air time as does the falling commodities. These falling prices will serve as a "tax relief" to both consumers and corporations. I was much more concerned about the changing consumer habits with the daily threat of increasing gasoline prices. The consumer forgets quickly and soon that fear will be gone and many will be back to spending every penny of each paycheck.
Will we ever see some companies at these low levels again. U.S. Steel at 4X earnings? Yes I know the argument is that earnings will fall, but see the first paragraph. In the steel industry sales will fall, but margins will improve as input costs per unit are lower. I am putting X on my watch list. Along the same lines, how can a good firm like VLO still be at these low levels given the fact that their margins most certainly will improve? When oil was going higher every day, the crack spreads (the margin for refining) were getting squeezed and we heard a lot about it in the mainstream mayhem. Anybody heard about a lack of pressure on the crack spreads with the rapidly declining price of oil? I haven't, but just because the mainstream guys aren't telling you about it doesn't mean that it isn't happening.
I think we are going to see the fear premimum unwind out of gold in the next couple of months, making gold a good long term play. That said, I can't fathom why FCX is still at low levels. Gold as an investment will be much better when the panic buyers are out of it some sense of normalcy is restored. I like gold over the long haul.
The commodities plays have been overdone to the downside. It is a generational issue. Recent generations are going to live longer and are much more spoiled to the "good life" than were our ancestors. We are going to continue to spend money and worry about saving later. Oh and those emerging countries China and India are raising generation that will be the same way. The global slowdown will be less than 2 years and then we will be rocking and rolling at a faster pace than ever before. You can expect to get back in the commodity bull mode sooner rather than later. People are going to eat, and they are going to have houses. It is that simple.
All that said, we may see some short term volatility. Hang on.
Will we ever see some companies at these low levels again. U.S. Steel at 4X earnings? Yes I know the argument is that earnings will fall, but see the first paragraph. In the steel industry sales will fall, but margins will improve as input costs per unit are lower. I am putting X on my watch list. Along the same lines, how can a good firm like VLO still be at these low levels given the fact that their margins most certainly will improve? When oil was going higher every day, the crack spreads (the margin for refining) were getting squeezed and we heard a lot about it in the mainstream mayhem. Anybody heard about a lack of pressure on the crack spreads with the rapidly declining price of oil? I haven't, but just because the mainstream guys aren't telling you about it doesn't mean that it isn't happening.
I think we are going to see the fear premimum unwind out of gold in the next couple of months, making gold a good long term play. That said, I can't fathom why FCX is still at low levels. Gold as an investment will be much better when the panic buyers are out of it some sense of normalcy is restored. I like gold over the long haul.
The commodities plays have been overdone to the downside. It is a generational issue. Recent generations are going to live longer and are much more spoiled to the "good life" than were our ancestors. We are going to continue to spend money and worry about saving later. Oh and those emerging countries China and India are raising generation that will be the same way. The global slowdown will be less than 2 years and then we will be rocking and rolling at a faster pace than ever before. You can expect to get back in the commodity bull mode sooner rather than later. People are going to eat, and they are going to have houses. It is that simple.
All that said, we may see some short term volatility. Hang on.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Panic Slowing?
If you ask me panic is beginning to slow down. We all know that stocks will turn before the economy does. I believe that we are seeing the beginnings of the effects of the interventions. The gold premium is going down. People are going to realize that even a global recession is not the end of the world. Am I calling a bottom? No, but it feels like we are getting close. The thing that I think we must accept is that we are in a very different trading environment. Bigger intraday swings are going to be a part of life for quite some time. With every environmental change comes opportunity. I have seen some crazy swing in normally boring old stocks.
I must say that I am expecting a bounce in commodities. I am still holding UNG and was pleased with the action there today. I believe that it was slammed as we delevered. I think as winter approaches and we see that people are in fact going to turn the heat on in their homes---even during a recession---gas should bounce back.
I am making my shopping list of securities. XTO has to come to the top of the list if you believe in the natural gas and energy play and I do. I mentioned Federal Express FDX last night. I also like Stericycle SRCL and Airgas ARG. Again, this is my watch list right now. I have not bought any of these yet.
I am so amazed as the talking heads on televisions are telling people things such as "Growth will be slower in the U.S. for a couple of years" Yes, but growth is good. When you are coming out of a recession, slow growth is better than no growth or contraction. We need to have this recession. It is good. As Jim Rogers said "We need to start over from a sound base."
Another stock I have watched (and I am glad I didn't pull the trigger) is Jones Lang Lasalle JLL. I have been shocked that this stock has been hit so hard. I think they are a very well run company and should be worth more.
I must say that I am expecting a bounce in commodities. I am still holding UNG and was pleased with the action there today. I believe that it was slammed as we delevered. I think as winter approaches and we see that people are in fact going to turn the heat on in their homes---even during a recession---gas should bounce back.
I am making my shopping list of securities. XTO has to come to the top of the list if you believe in the natural gas and energy play and I do. I mentioned Federal Express FDX last night. I also like Stericycle SRCL and Airgas ARG. Again, this is my watch list right now. I have not bought any of these yet.
I am so amazed as the talking heads on televisions are telling people things such as "Growth will be slower in the U.S. for a couple of years" Yes, but growth is good. When you are coming out of a recession, slow growth is better than no growth or contraction. We need to have this recession. It is good. As Jim Rogers said "We need to start over from a sound base."
Another stock I have watched (and I am glad I didn't pull the trigger) is Jones Lang Lasalle JLL. I have been shocked that this stock has been hit so hard. I think they are a very well run company and should be worth more.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Any Good Signs???
There are good things happening. Look at commodity prices---we are seeing no sign of inflation at this point. Now I know that many of you will contend that it is right over the horizon, but the falling oil prices are going to help the economy. This is the equivalent of a tax cut over the prices of the last quarter (which most working Americans had no choice but to immediately adjust to). Gold is not spiking which tells me that the panic is not as bad as it was the last day we were down over 500 points. Now I am not calling today a good day, but I see better signs than I did a couple of weeks ago.
I am now watching Federal Express FDX. This is a well run company that got slammed today because of worry about the global slowdown. Did the traders run for the door on this one when they got there margin calls? Were the sellers accurately forecasting the help this company will get from falling fuel prices? I think this one got overdone to the downside today. It may have further to fall if we see more forced liquidation, but over the long haul I think this one heads higher.
I like hearing the mainstream media talking about a LONG DEEP RECESSION AND EVEN DEPRESSION. The more they hammer this point home, the more it gets factored in on the downside and gives us opportunity to profit. Yes this will be a longer deeper slowdown, but it is not a shutdown. We have factored a lot of the recession in already. I am making my list, but am not anywhere near ready to plunge in full force yet. Sit back and watch---the only guarantee is VOLATILITY.
I am now watching Federal Express FDX. This is a well run company that got slammed today because of worry about the global slowdown. Did the traders run for the door on this one when they got there margin calls? Were the sellers accurately forecasting the help this company will get from falling fuel prices? I think this one got overdone to the downside today. It may have further to fall if we see more forced liquidation, but over the long haul I think this one heads higher.
I like hearing the mainstream media talking about a LONG DEEP RECESSION AND EVEN DEPRESSION. The more they hammer this point home, the more it gets factored in on the downside and gives us opportunity to profit. Yes this will be a longer deeper slowdown, but it is not a shutdown. We have factored a lot of the recession in already. I am making my list, but am not anywhere near ready to plunge in full force yet. Sit back and watch---the only guarantee is VOLATILITY.
Monday, October 13, 2008
What A Day!!!!
Today was a great one, but I want to see us hold these gains tomorrow. I think we will hold them for the most part, but I don't want to go full force into the market until I can see we are going to hold some gains here. I will tell you that I cannot understand the action in natural gas. UNG was up very little today and I must admit that perplexes me more than just a little. I am sticking with that trade for the time being.
For those of you that have just jumped on the gold bandwagon, I think you are going to be disappointed. I know that I have had some guests on the show that say gold is headed much higher, but I just don't see it right now. It may go a little higher, but it isn't going to hit $1500 anytime soon. The one thing that a lot of people missed is the fact that the dollar would stay fairly strong through the downturn.
I think we are seeing confidence restored and when we do people are going to start seeing the good values out there. The American system is not broken, but it is having to endure a deeper recession for the band aids of the Greenspan era. He should never be allowed to speak in public again. Greenspan created more bubbles than anyone in history and now we have all paid a price for them.
For those comparing this recession to the Great Depression---unemployment during the Great Depression was more than 20%. Right now it is around 6%. We could easily get this economy growing again during the middle of next year and remember the stocks will turn up before the economy does. I am not a raging bull, but I am cautiously optimistic-----and I need to see at least a follow through day tomorrow.
STAY TUNED.
For those of you that have just jumped on the gold bandwagon, I think you are going to be disappointed. I know that I have had some guests on the show that say gold is headed much higher, but I just don't see it right now. It may go a little higher, but it isn't going to hit $1500 anytime soon. The one thing that a lot of people missed is the fact that the dollar would stay fairly strong through the downturn.
I think we are seeing confidence restored and when we do people are going to start seeing the good values out there. The American system is not broken, but it is having to endure a deeper recession for the band aids of the Greenspan era. He should never be allowed to speak in public again. Greenspan created more bubbles than anyone in history and now we have all paid a price for them.
For those comparing this recession to the Great Depression---unemployment during the Great Depression was more than 20%. Right now it is around 6%. We could easily get this economy growing again during the middle of next year and remember the stocks will turn up before the economy does. I am not a raging bull, but I am cautiously optimistic-----and I need to see at least a follow through day tomorrow.
STAY TUNED.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
FUTURES UP SUNDAY NIGHT 9:45 ET
You will notice that I time stamped the title of this post because in todays market things can change so fast. I hope we are going to see a rally tomorrow. The futures are being helped by the announcement that the global financial leaders are determined to get the credit flowing again. Specifically the EU leaders are guaranteeing banks. Now I hope this is more sustainable than the announcements that we have had lately.
Goldman Sachs cut their 2009 average price of oil to $86 from $115 per barrel. Not great news for the energy complex, but certainly welcome news for the consumer. I believe that they cut this years low estimate to $70 per barrel. Falling oil will help the consumer just in time for the Christmas shopping season if it continues on the same path.
I think we have enough government guarantees floating around to reasonably assume that we are getting close to the end of the total panic surrounding the banking system. I am looking for companies that have strong balance sheets such as JNJ. It is my opinion that we are going to go from a state of panic to merger mania if we don't bounce back soon. If I am a CEO of a company with a strong balance sheet, I am licking my chops at the thought of buying some of my competitors at these reduced prices. I would not get in a hurry because right now panic and fear are just creating better values. At some point these guys are going to jump in full force.
The DOW FUTURES were up 251 pts when I started typing this post and now they are only up 237. We must see some positive follow through tomorrow from this news if we are going to be able to get off of the bottom.
I am still holding SWS and FLR. Both of these have been totally slammed lately and the fundamental story has not changed that much in my opinion---but to date I have been VERY WRONG. I absolutely cannot believe that Chesapeake Energy CHK has fallen below $20. Just a couple of months ago this thing was up in the $70's. Now I know they have been hit, but this seems like it has to be overdone.
Everyone is writing off the disk drive makers, specifically Seagate STX. I think this one is a steal under $10. I thin this one could double, but I said that at 15.
I still think the consumer is going to be stronger than people think. I am trying to use my common sense to guide my thinking. I have a friend who sells condos in a normally very stable market, and he has told me several times that this has been a very difficult year---but it is slower and not dead. There are those of us that have not lived beyond our means and will still be eating out and taking vacations---slower
not dead. Recessions are healthy parts of the normal business cycles and SLOWER is just a part of this recession---it is normal. As I said before this recession may be a little deeper because of the excesses we saw the years preceding it, but we will get through this.
If we don't open sharply higher on the EU news, then tomorrow will be a wild one. If we do, we might be seeing the bottoming process really kick in.
HANG ON
Goldman Sachs cut their 2009 average price of oil to $86 from $115 per barrel. Not great news for the energy complex, but certainly welcome news for the consumer. I believe that they cut this years low estimate to $70 per barrel. Falling oil will help the consumer just in time for the Christmas shopping season if it continues on the same path.
I think we have enough government guarantees floating around to reasonably assume that we are getting close to the end of the total panic surrounding the banking system. I am looking for companies that have strong balance sheets such as JNJ. It is my opinion that we are going to go from a state of panic to merger mania if we don't bounce back soon. If I am a CEO of a company with a strong balance sheet, I am licking my chops at the thought of buying some of my competitors at these reduced prices. I would not get in a hurry because right now panic and fear are just creating better values. At some point these guys are going to jump in full force.
The DOW FUTURES were up 251 pts when I started typing this post and now they are only up 237. We must see some positive follow through tomorrow from this news if we are going to be able to get off of the bottom.
I am still holding SWS and FLR. Both of these have been totally slammed lately and the fundamental story has not changed that much in my opinion---but to date I have been VERY WRONG. I absolutely cannot believe that Chesapeake Energy CHK has fallen below $20. Just a couple of months ago this thing was up in the $70's. Now I know they have been hit, but this seems like it has to be overdone.
Everyone is writing off the disk drive makers, specifically Seagate STX. I think this one is a steal under $10. I thin this one could double, but I said that at 15.
I still think the consumer is going to be stronger than people think. I am trying to use my common sense to guide my thinking. I have a friend who sells condos in a normally very stable market, and he has told me several times that this has been a very difficult year---but it is slower and not dead. There are those of us that have not lived beyond our means and will still be eating out and taking vacations---slower
not dead. Recessions are healthy parts of the normal business cycles and SLOWER is just a part of this recession---it is normal. As I said before this recession may be a little deeper because of the excesses we saw the years preceding it, but we will get through this.
If we don't open sharply higher on the EU news, then tomorrow will be a wild one. If we do, we might be seeing the bottoming process really kick in.
HANG ON
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Capitulation or Head Fake? Capitalism or Socialism? Recession or Depression? Reality or Hype?
It looked like capitulation, but how many of us are so jittery that we are scared to test it. Many pundits are now saying that markets get undervalued just as they get over valued. I am certainly not ready to jump back in full force, but I also do not believe that every company in America is going to be worthless. This is not the end of the world, and I have heard some very interesting ideas as to why there is so much panic on the street. I was talking to someone yesterday that said the politicians need for everything to look bad so they could pass the bailout bill. Sound totally unreasonable? I have heard stranger ideas. Look at what happened when the house first tried to pass the bill, they got so much negative feedback from their districts that they could not get the votes to pass it. Then in the following we days we say the credit markets get worse and yes the mainstream media has enjoyed the heck out of this. Nothing is a better calling card for viewers than to preempt your regular programming to have a discussion about A FINANCIAL CRISIS. Nothing would reach the minds of as many people in our country except some type of major health epidemic. So we have it pounded into our heads over and over---people who normally don't even think about the economy begin watching and waiting, listening to the next so-called expert to see if their money will be safer in the bank or the mattress. We get a crisis of confidence and hence a bailout bill is passed and signed by the President. Every day consumers are still out spending. NOW I AM NOT TAKING LIGHTLY THAT SOME HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS. I UNDERSTAND AND RECOGNIZE THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IS INCREASING. I am however mindful of the fact that unemployment is not nearly at crisis levels let in terms of the entire economy. Normal economic cycles include recessions and when you have excesses prior to the recession, you can expect it to be deeper. Alan Greenspan fought the normal economic cycles and contributed to the nations level of excess living. Now we have to pay for it, but we will survive and we will grow again.
I WILL CONTINUE THIS ARTICLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
I WILL CONTINUE THIS ARTICLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Mark Haines on CNBC------SMUG RICH SMARTASS
I wanna puke. Mark Haines is sitting on CNBC laughing. He is saying how he told everyone that Paulson's plan wouldn't work. They are using slogans like "you can't afford to change the channel."
Today was terrible for the equities, but I think what got lost in the mix is that we did see a little---very little improvement in the credit markets. The credit markets have to get fixed first and it will be a slow process, but when traders begin to see progress in the credit markets, we will be getting to the bottom of equities. Japans Nikkei 225 is down almost 11% utterly staggering. Futures are down right now and I don't even worry about that because it is a long night.
On the bright side, inflation worries have more than moderated---they have been SMASHED. We are seeing gas prices in our area go down every day. That will be a nice boost for the consumer. Do I think this is the end of the American way of life? NO. Many are asking why the Feds Rate cut didn't help yesterday. For one thing LIBOR is contracting what the Fed is loosening. We will get that fixed. If our Fed and Treasury step up to guarantee interbank lending, we can get mitigate the damage that LIBOR is doing---at least that is my opinion.
WE NEED TO ELIMINATE THE MARK TO MARKET RULES. I don't understand why we haven't---unless the government believes as I do that the market-to-market elimination is going to be powerful and they are trying to hold that as the silver bullet. Our credit crisis has turned into a crisis of confidence and we could really help by eliminating mark-to-market.
I'll be watching Japan and China and will probably have an update. Make comments!!!
Today was terrible for the equities, but I think what got lost in the mix is that we did see a little---very little improvement in the credit markets. The credit markets have to get fixed first and it will be a slow process, but when traders begin to see progress in the credit markets, we will be getting to the bottom of equities. Japans Nikkei 225 is down almost 11% utterly staggering. Futures are down right now and I don't even worry about that because it is a long night.
On the bright side, inflation worries have more than moderated---they have been SMASHED. We are seeing gas prices in our area go down every day. That will be a nice boost for the consumer. Do I think this is the end of the American way of life? NO. Many are asking why the Feds Rate cut didn't help yesterday. For one thing LIBOR is contracting what the Fed is loosening. We will get that fixed. If our Fed and Treasury step up to guarantee interbank lending, we can get mitigate the damage that LIBOR is doing---at least that is my opinion.
WE NEED TO ELIMINATE THE MARK TO MARKET RULES. I don't understand why we haven't---unless the government believes as I do that the market-to-market elimination is going to be powerful and they are trying to hold that as the silver bullet. Our credit crisis has turned into a crisis of confidence and we could really help by eliminating mark-to-market.
I'll be watching Japan and China and will probably have an update. Make comments!!!
Credit Market Improvement??
Everyone on television is talking about seeing minor improvements in the credit situation yesterday. For example, the rates on t-bills increased a little indicating that there was less demand or flight to quality. This crisis is far from over from an economic standpoint, but I hope the markets start to turn up before we see economy fully fixed.
I am by no stretch calling a bottom here, but I think once we see LIBOR begin to decrease, we will see some improvement. Do we set a bottom this month? Let us know what you think.
Futures are positive right now, but we know how quickly thinks can change in this environment.
I am by no stretch calling a bottom here, but I think once we see LIBOR begin to decrease, we will see some improvement. Do we set a bottom this month? Let us know what you think.
Futures are positive right now, but we know how quickly thinks can change in this environment.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
EMERGENCY GLOBAL RATE CUTS
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 1/2 point and coordinated cuts around the globe. This appears to be one of the best moves that we have seen yet, moreso for the global scale and cooperation than the amount of the cut.
I am going to really start making that list of stocks, as this measure could restore confidence to some degree. The futures have made about a 500 point turnaround since this announcement. I hope this will help my FLR as it should help the global growth outlook.
Bank of America is down in the premarket even in the face of this news---which is very surprising to me.
Stay Tuned
I am going to really start making that list of stocks, as this measure could restore confidence to some degree. The futures have made about a 500 point turnaround since this announcement. I hope this will help my FLR as it should help the global growth outlook.
Bank of America is down in the premarket even in the face of this news---which is very surprising to me.
Stay Tuned
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
HOW MUCH MORE PAIN????
To all the idiots that said we were going to avoid a recession---you were dead wrong. To everyone that said you cannot mitigate inflation with demand destruction--you were dead wrong. Now where do we go from here? What is priced into this market? How much of a slowdown is already in? If you can answer those questions you can be a millionaire very soon. Here is the problem---this looks to be a long term problem. We are more likely to see a U shaped recovery than a V shaped recovery. I think it may take many years for the averages to recover, but lets get out there and find out which individual stocks will recover at a faster pace.
I think FCX is looking good on a valuation basis, but I wouldn't buy it with my enemies money right now. I am making my shopping list though. I can't figure out FLR for anything. The dang stock goes down every day and the volume keeps getting higher. If this one continues to fall there is no such thing as value on the street. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO KEEP FALLING.
Today looked awful especially given the fact that oil and gold were up and the dollar was down. Those are not ingredients for a recovery. It is a sad day when "LOSE LESS" is the best advice I have heard lately. I will update later.
I think FCX is looking good on a valuation basis, but I wouldn't buy it with my enemies money right now. I am making my shopping list though. I can't figure out FLR for anything. The dang stock goes down every day and the volume keeps getting higher. If this one continues to fall there is no such thing as value on the street. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO KEEP FALLING.
Today looked awful especially given the fact that oil and gold were up and the dollar was down. Those are not ingredients for a recovery. It is a sad day when "LOSE LESS" is the best advice I have heard lately. I will update later.
WHAT NOW??
Did we bottom yesterday? Are the pundits that are calling Dow 7500 right? I am still sitting on the sidelines--even though one of my stocks hit my sell point and I let it go yesterday. I saw Bill Ackman on CNBC this morning and he was saying that he sees some good buying opportunity.
It looks like the liquidity measures that the FED has been instituting are beginning to work. In my post on Sunday, I talked about everyone running for the door. I think we are seeing some good buying opportunity, but we have to see an end to the panic before we can realize value from those plays.
I will start mentioning individual stocks again when the markets settle down.
For now, I am a satisfied observer from the sidelines.
It looks like the liquidity measures that the FED has been instituting are beginning to work. In my post on Sunday, I talked about everyone running for the door. I think we are seeing some good buying opportunity, but we have to see an end to the panic before we can realize value from those plays.
I will start mentioning individual stocks again when the markets settle down.
For now, I am a satisfied observer from the sidelines.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
FUTURES IN TROUBLE!!!!!
ALL IS NOT WELL. The futures are under tremendous pressure and we keep hearing about foreign banks that are on the brink of failure or are failing. I am just depressed---no doubt about it. I think this market is is for a wild ride and not a good one. Logic seemed to tell me that we were seeing forced liquidation and we were having a credit crisis. Further I thought that if the credit crunch could be fixed---then earnings had not been that bad and we could have a good rebound. EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING FOR THE DOOR.
I heard someone say that now the tough part begins for the treasury. It will be a longer process if we don't see confidence restored immediately. I think that the general consensus was that once this deal got done, confidence would improve and so would the credit markets. When that didn't happen, some are feeling like it is "collapse time" I think tomorrow is going to be a monumental day. Do we see LIBOR decline? I sure hope so.
So what am I doing----besides kicking myself for not adhering to my sell rules and dumping FLR? I am looking at every single stock I own and preparing to know at what level it should be sold. I have held DEO for years and all of the reports say it should go back up---but I can't feed my family reports. I will know when I will sell everything I own.
Other than that, I am not buying anything until we get some much needed STABILITY.
I heard someone say that now the tough part begins for the treasury. It will be a longer process if we don't see confidence restored immediately. I think that the general consensus was that once this deal got done, confidence would improve and so would the credit markets. When that didn't happen, some are feeling like it is "collapse time" I think tomorrow is going to be a monumental day. Do we see LIBOR decline? I sure hope so.
So what am I doing----besides kicking myself for not adhering to my sell rules and dumping FLR? I am looking at every single stock I own and preparing to know at what level it should be sold. I have held DEO for years and all of the reports say it should go back up---but I can't feed my family reports. I will know when I will sell everything I own.
Other than that, I am not buying anything until we get some much needed STABILITY.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Agriculture Nightmare
The agriculture stocks got SLAMMED today. Today was an awful day on the Street. The credit crisis is very real and it is showing up with each report. The ag names were slammed on the fears that the credit crisis would prevent farmers from obtaining the credit necessary for their normal business activities. I think this will result in the passage of the bailout bill by the House sometime before Monday morning. I don't like it, but IT HAS TO BE DONE. We have to get the credit markets going again. It will take some time for the effects of the action to be felt and the small businessperson is seeing their credit shrink and get more expensive with each passing day.
Do I think the ag stocks got overdone to the downside? Yes. Is now the time to pull the trigger and buy some of them? It depends on this bailout. If we see the credit markets improve---I think you will see a nice rally in some of these stocks. My favorite in the space is Compass Minerals (CMP). This company has been very well run and has been successfully passing on price increases to their customers. Barring a credit boondoggle----their success should continue for quite some time.
Now I must admit my oil and natural gas plays got totally slammed today. I was so shocked by the action in FLR that I just did nothing. It was well below my stop---and I just did nothing. I cannot believe that a company that is less than one quarter removed from announcing record profits, record revenues, and record backlogs has lost about 50% of its value. DO,RIG, and XTO all got smacked around as investors seemed to say DEMAND DESTRUCTION IS REAL. I had several experts tell me that inflation was only a monetary phenomenon and demand destruction would not hold off inflation. THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY TRUE----AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN. I have the declining value portfolio to prove it. I do think that now is an extraordinary time. Today looked like a FORCED LIQUIDATION DAY. Oil was down, Gold was down, stocks of all types were down, and the dollar was up. It looks like we have a lot of fear in the markets and it further looks like nobody is buying the BUFFETT BOTTOM. I think we are in for a wild ride until the election on November 4th.
I am seeing strength in the banks. BAC and JPM fared much better than the rest of the market today. With oil declining we should see some of the trucking firms JBHT, LSTR and others join the party. I have said time and again if we can get the financials to lead us---we can get out of this mess. I am never happy to not have an idea to play, but today the best idea I had was to just sit tight and conserve capital for a better day. I may be bored between now and the election, but I have pledged to quit making dumb mistakes by feeling like I absolutely have to be in a trade.
I do have faith in America and I definitely think that we are still the dominant economy. We will get through this---it just isn't going to be a very fun ride!!!
Good night and God Bless!!!
Do I think the ag stocks got overdone to the downside? Yes. Is now the time to pull the trigger and buy some of them? It depends on this bailout. If we see the credit markets improve---I think you will see a nice rally in some of these stocks. My favorite in the space is Compass Minerals (CMP). This company has been very well run and has been successfully passing on price increases to their customers. Barring a credit boondoggle----their success should continue for quite some time.
Now I must admit my oil and natural gas plays got totally slammed today. I was so shocked by the action in FLR that I just did nothing. It was well below my stop---and I just did nothing. I cannot believe that a company that is less than one quarter removed from announcing record profits, record revenues, and record backlogs has lost about 50% of its value. DO,RIG, and XTO all got smacked around as investors seemed to say DEMAND DESTRUCTION IS REAL. I had several experts tell me that inflation was only a monetary phenomenon and demand destruction would not hold off inflation. THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY TRUE----AT LEAST IN THE SHORT RUN. I have the declining value portfolio to prove it. I do think that now is an extraordinary time. Today looked like a FORCED LIQUIDATION DAY. Oil was down, Gold was down, stocks of all types were down, and the dollar was up. It looks like we have a lot of fear in the markets and it further looks like nobody is buying the BUFFETT BOTTOM. I think we are in for a wild ride until the election on November 4th.
I am seeing strength in the banks. BAC and JPM fared much better than the rest of the market today. With oil declining we should see some of the trucking firms JBHT, LSTR and others join the party. I have said time and again if we can get the financials to lead us---we can get out of this mess. I am never happy to not have an idea to play, but today the best idea I had was to just sit tight and conserve capital for a better day. I may be bored between now and the election, but I have pledged to quit making dumb mistakes by feeling like I absolutely have to be in a trade.
I do have faith in America and I definitely think that we are still the dominant economy. We will get through this---it just isn't going to be a very fun ride!!!
Good night and God Bless!!!
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Buy The Rumor SELL THE FACT?
The futures turned downward as soon as it was confirmed that the Senate had passed the bailout package. The vote of 74-25 seemed to send a clear message that there was a bipartisan movement to fix the problem. Many were saying that after Warren Buffett bought a huge stake in General Electric today the free markets could fix themselves.
Quite honestly I don't think the markets are going to know anything until the bailout gets done and we can see the results. Gold is not tunning that much higher right now and that is a good sign. We definitely don't need to see the markets get back down to Monday's closing level. If we do, I think we are going to see some more pain---FAST.
I really hope we don't get there and after we bounced today I saw that as a good sign.
As far as how I am trading, I am doing nothing but sitting tight. I have pinned my hopes on Natural Gas (i am sitting on the UNG). I still think FLR which I am holding has to benefit once we get growth going again, but the market has been telling me that I am wrong----very wrong. I am going to be stubborn and keep sitting on FLR for a while longer.
I have mentioned Southwest Securities (SWS) before and I like the recent action in this stock. I am sitting on it and am happy that it is within 10-12% of its 52 week high.
If the change in the mark-to-market rule stays in both the Senate and House bills, that could be a HUGE ASSISTANCE. I think that could be the shocker that refuels liquidity faster than most expect. It would certainly make me feel better about the financials immediately. It would make me take a look at AIG---even though I have said I don't want too own a company that the government will control. The question in my mind is If we change the mark-to-market will AIG bounce back much quicker?
We will see how things shape up and give you an update soon.
Even though we got the bailout is anyone else as disgusted with the political process/pandering/power playing as I am? Leave your comments.
Quite honestly I don't think the markets are going to know anything until the bailout gets done and we can see the results. Gold is not tunning that much higher right now and that is a good sign. We definitely don't need to see the markets get back down to Monday's closing level. If we do, I think we are going to see some more pain---FAST.
I really hope we don't get there and after we bounced today I saw that as a good sign.
As far as how I am trading, I am doing nothing but sitting tight. I have pinned my hopes on Natural Gas (i am sitting on the UNG). I still think FLR which I am holding has to benefit once we get growth going again, but the market has been telling me that I am wrong----very wrong. I am going to be stubborn and keep sitting on FLR for a while longer.
I have mentioned Southwest Securities (SWS) before and I like the recent action in this stock. I am sitting on it and am happy that it is within 10-12% of its 52 week high.
If the change in the mark-to-market rule stays in both the Senate and House bills, that could be a HUGE ASSISTANCE. I think that could be the shocker that refuels liquidity faster than most expect. It would certainly make me feel better about the financials immediately. It would make me take a look at AIG---even though I have said I don't want too own a company that the government will control. The question in my mind is If we change the mark-to-market will AIG bounce back much quicker?
We will see how things shape up and give you an update soon.
Even though we got the bailout is anyone else as disgusted with the political process/pandering/power playing as I am? Leave your comments.
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