Friday, May 15, 2009


I was unimpressed with yesterday's rally except for the simple fact that we did find stability after Wednesday's decline. JCPenny beat quarterly estimates, but lowered full year guidance. Those calling for recovery by the end of the year may be very disappointed. Now many may argue that without recovery my inflation thesis may be out the window. I disagree as there are pockets of strength around the world such as China that will recover and put pressure on prices. I stand by my inflation thesis and am long July corn at the moment.

The futures are down at this time and I am just sitting by and waiting on FCX to fall a little more. It has been volatile and should get another push to the downside. I have also been watching ICE. It wants to move up but needs to close above $103 before I can really get excited and it is one that is subject to news risk and the position must be monitored at all times.

The bad economic news is not over and it is just a matter of how much has been "baked into the cake". Today is options expiration day and it could get volatile.
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