Tuesday, May 12, 2009


These markets are determined to try to go higher. Last night every effort was made to push the futures lower and it just couldn't be done. FCX provided a buying opportunity yesterday as it pulled back in the first few hours of trading. The tech stocks continue to lead the charge--surprising many. I wouldn't be surprised to see this market challenge 950 on the S&P this week. You are hearing too many "experts" in the mainstream media calling for some massive correction. That generally signals that we are headed a little higher.

China had disappointing export numbers last night--much worse than expected---but that didn't deter the U.S. futures from rebounding after a little drop in "sympathy" for China. It seems that investors have baked a lot of bad news out of the U.S (and the China export numbers were really a reflection on the U.S. economy) into the cake and are determined to move higher.

Natural gas prices are moving higher this morning and I think you will see that trend continue. This is a ridiculous level for natural gas and it almost assumes deflation for years. That is not happening. UNG is a good way to play that if you prefer the ETF. I see natural gas prices higher than most of the forecasts out of the nat gas companies. They have to be somewhat conservative in their projections, but I have seen how the drilling has stopped and it is only a matter of time until we get a strong trend on the back of some "declining reserve" report.

I am watching SEIC and will look to buy only if it trades over $16.39. It may not get there this week,but this one is worth watching when it finally decides to break that level.

The China story may cause copper prices to pull back---and then again it may not. If it does it will be another good buying opportunity in FCX. Some of you have said I am beating the same drum with this one, but it has doubled while I have been pounding that drum and I expect it to move up to $75 this year.

I will be interested to see how the bonds trade today. I think the bonds are setting up for a great short. I am only watching them for right now.
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