Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Banking Collapse

Bottom fishing will be extemely tough in the face of a total banking collapse. You can't call this a crisis--it is a collapse of the system that we have known and enjoyed. Many are arguing that there are smaller regional banks that will emerge stronger as their balance sheets do not resemble those of the Citigroup, Bank of America and others. In the southern region of the country that is most definitely the case---BUT HOW LONG CAN THAT LAST WITH PLUMMETING OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES. Many of these banks have made loans based on these industries and if they don't get relief from falling oil and nat gas prices----ANOTHER SHOE WILL DROP.

Has anyone heard ole Larry Kudlow calling for KING DOLLAR lately? I personally don't listen to Kudlow much anymore and wonder if he still believes the we need the stronger dollar---because I believe that we must see the dollar begin to fall or we are going to see worse than expected earnings from the multinationals. I know expectations are very very low, but what will happen if we see a bunch of earnings misses? We could easily see the DOW drop below 7000. This market has factored in terrible news--but if we get below expectations there will be selling like never before. Right now we have no confidence in the banking system, no confidence in earnings, and no trust in Wall Street thanks to Madoff and others. THAT MY FRIENDS IS A BEARISH RECIPE---EVEN FROM THESE LEVELS!!!!


Kel said...

I couldn't agree more!