Saturday, November 1, 2008

The next 10%

Is the next 10% up or down? I believe that we are going to see some stabilization and upward movement between now and the end of the year. I do however see some terrible things on the horizon if we keep this stimulus talk up. Both the Republicans and the Democrats have gotten this thing wrong. I said before the bailout--and I stand by it--that we had to have the banking/credit bailout to save our banking system. We don't need some timeout for people that aren't paying their mortgages. We have to quit trying to mitigate the recession. We needed to stop the collapse of our financial system and we have done that. We need to quit with the bailout/stimulus/handout/socialism NOW!!! We are going to create rampant inflation and now I am looking at GOLD. I think the fear premium is coming out of gold and I want to get in before the correct inflation premium is priced in. I prefer to play gold through FCX which is not a pure play. The pure play is GLD and I am looking at that one as well.

Where most people that correctly called the downward move in the economy ultimately got their plays wrong was that they assumed that the dollar would be destroyed. They missed on that call and we are seeing major strength in the dollar. So how do you play the socialism movement? With inflation hedges. The dollar is still positioned such that as the U.S. economy gets hit---it will SLAM other economies and markets. I think this phenomenon will continue for quite some time so I am turning my attention to playing the inflation that will most certainly arrive.

Will dividend stocks take a hit if the Democrats take office? Will increasing the dividend tax hurt those stocks in the short term? We are seeing some awesome yields paid on some traditionally strong stocks such as WRI and DRE? If there were not potential tax implications on the horizon, I would be buying those stocks right now. I am going to be researching this issue this weekend because I believe that commercial real estate will rebound in this country because the consumer is still out there shopping.

We have a couple of interviews that will be posted soon! STAY TUNED


captain caveman said...

so we can add the author of this blog to the list of idoits buying gold. more fear and more panic money moving out of the markets.

gold is going down and inflation is not anywhere on the radar screen. how can you have inflation when you have had wealth in this country evaporating? baby boomers are going to work longer and not retire and you clowns are worried about inflation?

keep on singing your fear songs and buying your gold. this market is heading up in a hurry and not only are you idiots going to miss the ride you are going to lose even more on your gold.

i guess dollar discipline got hit so hard with his stupid ideas that he can't afford to get online anymore. he hasn't been here stirring up his wishy washy agenda in a long time.

mr stock shotz is going to be broke right along with dollar. buy your gold fools!

Anonymous said...

Wow. I bet you are probably a cnbc clone. What is gold doing today. Go figure. I just heard the only smart thing to come out of anyone from cnbc was that they just said that the demand for gold and other metals in china will help drive prices up. The first sound fundamental statement I have heard from a long time from them.