Tuesday, February 24, 2009


THE MARKET SEEMS TO HATE THE IDEA OF SOCIALISM. We tried to have a dead cat bounce yesterday and not only did it fail, it turned into a huge down day. One of the dangers that I see is that people got used to seeing 200+ swings, but not at these levels. If you look at yesterday--it would have been the equivalent of a 500 point drop when the DOW was at its peak. We have no clarity, and if we ever get any (sadly again looking to the government for our trading plan) we might see a bounce.

Right now there is no catalyst to send us higher. It has been tough to blog without sounding like a broken record---get out and wait. I sold most everything I owned yesterday when the market was down about 40pts on the DOW. I made some really nice trades in SRS and SDS. Obviously right now it is just too easy to trade those 2,but that to will change.

I think gold will run back through 1000 with relative ease. I have been criticized for my gold views, but it has had a great run based on its value relative to other currencies that are printing money. It will continue its run for another reason (inflation). It will certainly be volatile in the short run, but I still see it moving much higher.

I believe that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop. We are seeing layoffs every day and those will take some time to have their full impact on the RETAILERS. We will see retail bankruptcies which will lead to vacant buildings by the droves.

I am trying to break things down to the simplest possible terms. STAYING OUT AND WAITING.
blog comments powered by Disqus