tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-625524533455240196.post668568464421072423..comments2023-03-25T03:57:09.952-05:00Comments on Stock Shotz: Gold and Oil in 2009Stock Shotzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11189076782378081627noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-625524533455240196.post-28201870770527411442008-12-29T12:56:00.000-06:002008-12-29T12:56:00.000-06:00The fact that the reasons to buy gold are painstak...The fact that the reasons to buy gold are painstakingly obvious to you are the exact reasons why it is a bad investment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-625524533455240196.post-71035602304615090642008-12-27T16:29:00.000-06:002008-12-27T16:29:00.000-06:00an interesting theory...it could very well be corr...an interesting theory...it could very well be correct although I dont think it will play out that way...yes one day we will have severe inflation but I dont think it will be right now or even next yr.<BR/><BR/>While the govt is pouring trillions of dollars into the financial system it isnt getting to mainstreet...the M3 money supply appears to be rising sharply but in reality it is not due to the banks hoarding the money...even the auto co's and etc will keep the money just to stay alive because there wont be enough to invest for the future.<BR/><BR/>Also, the velocity of money is slowing significantly....you see, the true money supply grows when people take out loans and this isnt happening...matter of fact, much of the money used by our society over the past 5 yrs was from tapping the home ATM for HELOCS...this accounted for 3-4 % of our positive GDP during this time frame...this is gone...credit card co's will reduce consumer credit by 2T over the next yr and this is highly deflationary....this affects the mkts more than govt actions because 70% of our economy is consumer spending.<BR/><BR/>If you truly think commodities and gold will rally in 2009 then you should also think the equity mkts will rise to(ie-the bear mkt is over)...the energy and financials make up 30% of the SP 500 now and these sectors will lead the mkts once again...now I just cant see how the equity mkts are done going down...whether we bottomed on 11/21 or will do so soon it doesnt matter because in every scenerio we will have a 50% retracing bear mkt rally for a few months but then the selling will resume(ie-make new lows)...if you believe this scenerio like I do, I just cant see how oil, gold and steel/fertilizers are going to have a substantial rally other than the brief yet significant bear mkt rally that we are either in now or will be in soon enough.<BR/><BR/>To me, this isnt the 50% rally I am expecting...the mkt internals are too weak...the wave 4 bear mkt rally should be explosive and have volume...I think were going to make new lows within the next 2 months and then have the explosive bear mkt rally retracing 50%...jmho of course...GL.MACThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15472912503728630790noreply@blogger.com