Government Policies Taking Us Back To 1987?????

I am not a history buff at all, but sometimes it pays not to ignore the obvious. When in history have huge defecits been good for the economy in the long run? When have artificial bubbles not burst? We saw the market make a huge rally on Thursday as we "discovered" that GDP grew during the quarter. BUT a deeper look saw the artifical increase by government stimulus-THAT CAN'T OCCUR AGAIN. Can't? Well couldn't the government just heat up the ole check writing machine and pump some more stimulus into the pockets of consumers? They could, but it would not have the same effect? Why? Because everyone knows that our NATIONAL DEBT IS AT THE BREAKING POINT!!! We are on the verge of collapse if tax, spend, regulate, and fake doesn't come to a screaching stop.

Has this been a government stimulus rally? Was the smart money on the street able to take advantage of the momentum and push the markets even higher? And perhaps the biggest question WERE THE MARCH 2009 LOWS THE LOWS OF THIS RECESSION? I believe that the smart money took advantage of the change in momentum and picked up consumer confidence. I believe that the March 2009 lows will be tested and probably broken within the next 6 months.

Taking a look at charts around various industries, we find many charts close to their 200 day moving averages. If these averages are violated, will panic set in? I believe that it will----AND THIS TIME, IT WILL BE WORSE THAN BEFORE.

I bought FAZ on Friday had a nice gain. I am looking to roll out of many of my positions and be prepared to get short. The obvious play appears to be short real estate and mortgage companies---but be careful. That trade could be crowded as many well know experts brought the thesis to the forefront of attention late last week.

Is the American consumer in the tank? Is it in worse position than it was this time last year? A government stimulated jobless recovery (and the most socialistic policies of our time) tell me that the consumer is in far worse long term shape than anyone in the MAINSTREAM MEDIA IS WILLING TO ADMIT.

No the drop might not be overnight---but our standard of living is in decline. Those willing to overspend will not be able to access the levels of credit they were able to access just 18 months ago. And those with excess income, are going to tend to save rather than spend. So how far will we contract? How far socialist will our nation become? The more socialist we become===THE MORE BEARISH I WILL BECOME. AND LETS DON'T EVEN TALK ABOUT HOW INFLATION DURING THESE TIME COULD HAMMER THE ECONOMY IF IT GETS OUT OF THE BAG.

See Congressman Michelle Bachmann speak out against SPEND NOW AND LET SOMEONE ELSE PAY LATER. SHE ALSO TALKS ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE DOLLAR!!




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CHECK BACK SOON!!!!

IS IT 1987 ALL OVER AGAIN?

I have taken several months off from blogging and must say I miss the daily interaction with readers and am glad to be back. I have been telling my friends that I am reducing my holdings in stocks and believe that we could be headed for a 1987 type crash in the near future. Am I crazy? Well those of you that saw my call on UNG may think so. I lost a lot of money on that trade.

How do I recover from my losses, by analyzing what I did wrong and making another play---essentially living to play another day and by being smarter on the next trade.

I really thought we were headed for a period of massive inflation and I chose to play that through natural gas. Was I wrong on my inflation play? Was I wrong that inflation would begin with the decline in the dollar? I think I am still on the right track, but I think we are in for a very weird period first. Right now we seem to be in a quagmire whereby the strength in the dollar will hammer the markets? Wait a minute---doesn't Larry Kudlow scream for King Dollar every night? If the dollar strengthens, we lose two components that really helped earnings this quarter---exports and the boost from the exchange rates for companies earning in other currencies. If that shoe drops, we quickly find out that this market got overvalued in a hurry and the future isn't so bright. 700 on the SP by years end? Stay tuned.

I will have more this weekend and I am glad to be back. We will be bringing you interviews again in the very near future.